* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERICK EP062019 08/03/19 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 30 25 22 20 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 30 25 22 20 21 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 31 27 24 22 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 38 42 41 40 44 43 37 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 3 4 2 -3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 258 257 266 269 268 268 271 281 295 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.7 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.5 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 144 145 146 147 149 148 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.6 -53.9 -54.3 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.1 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 51 48 47 49 52 50 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 11 8 8 8 10 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 28 25 19 16 17 8 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 17 18 35 45 50 62 -5 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 10 8 8 9 6 6 0 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 396 465 480 456 457 514 601 697 802 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.2 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.3 20.0 20.4 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.8 159.8 160.8 161.8 162.7 164.4 165.7 166.8 167.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 25 24 25 31 32 31 33 28 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 28. 29. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -12. -21. -28. -36. -42. -45. -46. -46. -48. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -4. -5. -4. -7. -9. -13. -13. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -15. -14. -17. -22. -27. -31. -34. -35. -35. -33. -33. -35. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 16.8 158.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 245.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.64 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.26 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062019 ERICK 08/03/19 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##