* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OSCAR AL162018 10/27/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 65 74 81 89 79 68 44 20 19 18 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 65 74 81 89 79 68 44 20 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 55 56 58 61 63 67 70 75 74 64 53 44 39 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 6 14 14 18 19 20 16 16 14 24 24 74 93 85 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 1 -3 0 -1 -5 -3 -3 -6 3 5 9 12 10 9 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 17 347 10 5 1 342 321 286 248 233 206 208 236 244 241 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.7 27.1 26.9 26.8 25.9 24.8 23.7 23.1 18.7 13.0 9.9 9.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 123 122 122 125 121 121 114 107 101 99 83 74 71 71 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 111 111 110 110 112 105 105 101 97 93 92 78 72 70 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.6 -56.6 -56.8 -56.5 -56.6 -57.2 -57.3 -56.5 -56.2 -56.2 -56.8 -55.2 -53.5 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.4 0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 6 4 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 47 49 47 44 50 56 55 46 38 50 49 57 62 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 20 20 19 19 20 25 28 34 27 25 18 9 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 99 101 109 105 95 88 54 34 63 88 83 105 131 139 137 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 -56 -31 -26 -18 -27 25 39 78 29 45 66 58 35 73 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 13 -5 -5 2 -3 -3 2 10 10 -9 -19 -75 -31 77 96 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1892 1750 1608 1483 1361 1239 1291 1467 1546 1268 916 927 1344 1088 776 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.1 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.1 26.3 27.5 29.3 31.9 35.3 39.5 44.5 49.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.9 51.3 52.8 54.1 55.5 57.3 58.0 57.7 55.8 52.4 47.6 41.6 34.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 12 10 6 8 12 19 25 31 34 35 34 32 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 7 4 4 8 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 759 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -12. -27. -41. -43. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -1. 3. 9. -1. -4. -14. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 15. 24. 31. 39. 29. 18. -6. -30. -31. -32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 27.1 49.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.67 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -29.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.01 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 311.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.60 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.6% 9.4% 7.6% 6.5% 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 9.5% 6.5% 1.4% 0.9% 2.5% 1.8% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 7.9% 5.4% 3.0% 2.5% 4.1% 0.6% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL162018 OSCAR 10/27/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 52 54 55 56 58 60 65 74 81 89 79 68 44 20 19 18 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 53 55 57 62 71 78 86 76 65 41 17 16 15 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 50 52 57 66 73 81 71 60 36 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 45 50 59 66 74 64 53 29 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT