* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * WILLA EP242018 10/23/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 102 93 83 76 62 56 52 49 45 42 40 38 34 29 27 23 V (KT) LAND 110 102 82 59 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 110 100 89 58 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 18 25 29 35 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 2 0 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 181 198 199 219 243 239 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.3 28.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 155 149 149 122 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.7 1.2 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 3 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 63 61 60 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 10 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 33 52 64 59 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 80 94 83 70 39 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -4 -2 27 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 165 79 -15 -160 -305 -414 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.9 22.7 23.7 24.6 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 107.1 106.4 105.7 104.7 103.7 101.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 51 30 23 16 16 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -7. -15. -22. -28. -33. -36. -38. -38. -38. -38. -40. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -16. -23. -23. -21. -21. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -35. -34. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -4. -9. -10. -10. -13. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -17. -15. -14. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -8. -17. -27. -34. -48. -54. -58. -61. -65. -68. -70. -72. -76. -81. -83. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.1 107.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.14 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 443.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.24 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.44 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP242018 WILLA 10/23/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##