* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MICHAEL AL142018 10/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 113 114 113 110 101 94 82 72 61 40 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 110 113 114 113 77 43 32 28 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 110 115 115 112 79 43 32 35 38 37 31 26 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 15 10 9 11 15 15 30 43 48 75 83 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 2 0 2 1 6 5 13 13 6 8 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 289 270 236 233 233 211 218 238 248 257 272 279 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.3 28.6 27.0 25.8 22.7 17.6 13.9 14.8 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 159 156 158 148 129 118 98 81 75 76 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 143 140 140 137 139 132 117 110 92 78 73 73 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.8 -51.7 -51.2 -50.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.8 -52.4 -51.0 -50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.6 -0.4 -1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 10 9 4 4 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 63 64 66 61 52 39 35 30 34 39 43 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 31 31 30 27 27 24 26 26 20 17 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 42 51 64 47 27 19 26 84 120 93 93 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 48 43 51 29 46 99 68 56 83 29 38 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 21 16 0 5 2 -18 -42 36 47 182 234 218 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 365 251 142 14 -101 -149 -103 226 313 324 550 1297 1012 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.6 27.7 28.7 29.8 30.8 32.9 35.2 37.8 40.7 43.9 46.6 48.9 51.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.3 86.2 85.5 84.9 82.4 78.2 72.6 65.1 55.7 45.7 35.3 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 13 18 23 29 35 38 37 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 39 30 29 31 13 3 1 4 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 10 CX,CY: -1/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -3. -11. -21. -32. -43. -52. -60. -67. -70. -72. -73. -73. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -7. -9. -12. -18. -23. -22. -22. -24. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -9. -8. -9. -18. -23. -25. -24. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 3. 0. -9. -16. -28. -38. -49. -70. -87. -98. -95. -93. -93. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 26.6 86.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 5.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.59 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 28.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.18 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.36 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.34 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.44 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 17.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 20.1% 28.1% 19.1% 11.6% 5.4% 7.1% 2.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 37.8% 11.9% 5.9% 12.8% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 25.3% 19.1% 12.8% 8.2% 2.2% 2.4% 0.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL142018 MICHAEL 10/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 29 30( 50) 0( 50) 0( 50) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 7 1( 8) 0( 8) 0( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 110 113 114 113 77 43 32 28 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 110 109 110 109 73 39 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 110 107 106 105 69 35 24 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 110 104 101 100 64 30 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 110 101 95 92 91 57 46 42 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 110 113 104 98 95 82 71 67 57 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 39 IN 12HR 110 113 114 105 99 95 84 80 70 52 52 52 52 52 52 52 52