* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SERGIO EP212018 10/07/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 85 82 80 80 79 74 69 68 65 56 48 38 27 17 15 15 V (KT) LAND 90 85 82 80 80 79 74 69 68 65 56 48 35 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 90 85 82 81 79 76 70 62 55 47 39 32 25 25 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 13 9 8 11 16 16 14 26 31 40 47 55 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -1 2 3 9 6 7 7 5 11 5 -1 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 61 51 62 58 7 334 333 308 267 253 233 243 244 253 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.7 26.5 26.2 25.6 23.5 23.8 27.5 28.1 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 138 138 138 136 130 129 127 121 100 103 142 148 149 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -50.5 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.7 -51.1 -50.6 -50.0 -50.3 -50.5 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.9 0.9 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 3 2 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 61 58 58 58 60 57 54 53 50 48 45 42 37 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 39 42 40 41 42 42 41 38 39 39 36 33 29 23 18 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 97 100 87 76 72 64 52 53 40 48 52 45 38 19 -22 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 65 94 19 -30 -34 27 15 31 20 40 -4 30 -14 13 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 0 11 8 15 -12 1 -9 0 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1884 1911 1939 1932 1925 1846 1707 1517 1268 968 621 250 -36 -240 -582 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.7 14.8 15.1 15.3 16.0 16.9 17.9 19.3 21.0 23.1 25.4 27.8 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.6 127.1 127.5 127.7 127.9 127.6 126.7 125.2 123.3 121.0 118.5 115.8 113.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 5 7 10 13 15 16 17 18 18 18 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 9 10 12 13 9 2 1 0 0 0 0 7 11 12 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -10. -15. -20. -24. -29. -33. -34. -34. -34. -37. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. 0. -0. -5. -8. -12. -17. -20. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -16. -21. -22. -25. -34. -42. -52. -63. -73. -75. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.5 126.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.17 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 2.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.48 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 11.0% 9.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 3.9% 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212018 SERGIO 10/07/18 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##