* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 55 51 47 46 44 42 42 40 42 45 43 39 26 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 55 51 47 46 44 42 42 40 42 45 43 35 28 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 48 46 43 41 40 39 41 44 48 41 36 36 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 38 41 44 42 50 46 36 15 9 11 21 24 25 29 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 7 2 3 1 2 -4 0 -1 -2 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 212 211 209 215 216 225 233 243 262 233 172 171 181 224 231 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.7 26.2 26.4 27.1 27.0 26.0 24.4 22.9 21.0 19.4 16.5 14.8 13.4 12.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 118 120 128 127 116 103 94 86 81 75 72 71 70 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 108 110 116 112 102 91 84 77 74 70 68 68 67 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.4 -54.7 -55.9 -56.4 -56.5 -55.7 -55.7 -55.5 -56.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.1 -0.1 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 41 44 44 47 49 51 46 46 46 54 54 49 53 56 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 26 25 27 27 30 33 33 32 34 33 32 25 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 54 88 81 85 62 25 0 -11 -8 22 50 37 64 101 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 56 71 44 37 48 53 6 5 28 56 25 61 86 56 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 9 15 21 19 17 13 -5 2 6 22 -13 -47 44 56 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2098 2102 2119 2136 2170 2082 2011 1770 1397 1022 730 351 -19 -19 284 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 25.6 27.1 28.8 30.5 33.8 36.6 39.1 41.3 43.4 46.0 49.2 52.7 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.3 37.2 37.1 36.8 36.5 35.3 33.0 29.7 25.9 21.7 17.3 13.0 9.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 19 21 22 22 22 21 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 5 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 11 CX,CY: 0/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -19. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -15. -20. -25. -26. -24. -23. -22. -23. -25. -28. -29. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 2. 6. 5. 3. 4. 2. 1. -9. -17. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -13. -14. -16. -18. -18. -20. -18. -15. -17. -21. -34. -45. -48. -48. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.0 37.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 54.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 47.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.18 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 432.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 44.1 100.0 to 0.0 0.56 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 55 51 47 46 44 42 42 40 42 45 43 35 28 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 51 50 48 46 46 44 46 49 47 39 32 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 51 49 47 47 45 47 50 48 40 33 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 47 45 45 43 45 48 46 38 31 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT