* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 123 127 129 131 129 128 119 109 98 89 78 72 66 61 59 56 V (KT) LAND 120 123 127 129 131 129 128 119 96 57 37 30 28 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 123 127 130 130 126 123 111 97 53 35 29 27 27 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 3 6 6 1 3 10 15 18 27 18 18 21 22 17 20 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -4 -1 -3 1 -1 -5 -1 -1 -5 -3 -5 -2 1 SHEAR DIR 84 65 121 235 264 196 245 267 283 294 294 296 292 308 298 302 297 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5 29.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 166 164 168 166 162 159 163 156 156 157 157 159 160 158 158 158 143 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 152 149 143 135 135 126 124 124 123 125 126 124 123 124 112 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -51.7 -50.8 -50.6 -50.1 -49.9 -50.0 -50.3 -50.9 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.8 2.3 1.1 1.3 0.9 0.6 0.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 0.6 0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 12 11 9 10 6 8 5 7 5 9 5 4 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 48 48 50 53 55 59 60 60 57 58 56 54 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 31 33 31 34 33 30 26 24 17 14 12 9 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 5 -2 5 9 -5 -22 -26 -23 -12 -10 5 3 9 -17 -9 2 25 200 MB DIV -3 -27 2 21 34 -3 26 11 31 0 35 -7 3 -3 9 11 -14 700-850 TADV 1 -9 -7 3 5 -4 4 6 0 6 3 0 13 5 12 -2 -23 LAND (KM) 911 941 957 799 642 379 197 90 -2 -71 -133 -195 -264 -363 -452 -502 -547 LAT (DEG N) 27.2 28.0 28.7 29.6 30.4 31.9 33.1 33.9 34.5 34.9 35.2 35.5 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 66.3 67.8 69.3 70.6 72.0 74.3 75.8 76.8 77.5 78.1 78.7 79.4 80.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 14 13 10 7 5 4 3 3 4 5 4 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 40 48 37 38 27 43 44 30 27 23 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 16 CX,CY: -14/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 2. -3. -12. -22. -31. -39. -46. -49. -53. -57. -60. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 4. -1. -6. -11. -21. -25. -28. -30. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 9. 11. 9. 8. -1. -11. -22. -31. -42. -48. -54. -59. -61. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 27.2 66.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.90 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1008.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 9.0% 12.3% 8.3% 4.7% 3.6% 4.2% 8.3% 0.5% Bayesian: 8.2% 33.9% 8.2% 1.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 15.4% 5.5% 2.0% 1.3% 1.6% 2.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 41( 60) 45( 78) 44( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 26 29( 47) 14( 55) 20( 64) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 123 127 129 131 129 128 119 96 57 37 30 28 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 120 119 123 125 127 125 124 115 92 53 33 26 24 23 23 24 24 12HR AGO 120 117 116 118 120 118 117 108 85 46 26 19 17 16 16 17 17 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 112 110 109 100 77 38 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 99 98 89 66 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 123 114 108 105 103 102 93 70 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 123 127 118 112 108 107 98 75 36 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS