* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/09/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 68 67 66 66 65 63 60 55 49 44 40 37 36 34 33 35 V (KT) LAND 70 68 67 66 66 65 63 60 55 49 44 40 37 36 34 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 70 68 66 65 64 64 63 61 58 54 49 44 41 39 38 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 2 7 9 6 6 6 14 18 24 25 32 29 32 26 26 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -2 -1 4 6 11 7 8 3 3 -2 0 -3 -6 SHEAR DIR 17 314 326 337 345 295 254 255 267 263 260 264 274 266 260 253 254 SST (C) 24.9 25.4 25.4 25.6 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.8 26.6 27.6 27.7 28.1 28.3 28.1 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 113 118 118 120 125 124 125 131 132 130 141 142 146 148 147 151 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.8 -52.1 -52.6 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.2 -54.7 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 7 8 8 8 8 10 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 32 33 31 30 30 27 27 30 31 36 38 41 40 45 44 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 20 20 20 20 18 17 16 13 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 42 50 31 23 8 3 14 28 40 54 56 68 62 79 78 72 76 200 MB DIV -5 0 5 15 17 1 0 -13 -6 -26 1 -16 0 3 22 20 13 700-850 TADV 1 3 -4 -1 2 1 2 -2 -3 -5 -2 -4 -3 1 5 7 3 LAND (KM) 1527 1396 1265 1145 1026 815 619 421 222 11 125 236 418 647 916 1210 1501 LAT (DEG N) 21.8 21.9 22.0 22.1 22.1 22.0 21.9 21.6 21.2 20.7 20.2 19.8 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 140.3 141.6 142.9 144.1 145.3 147.4 149.4 151.4 153.5 155.9 158.4 161.0 163.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 12 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4 5 2 25 25 38 29 21 25 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. -0. -4. -6. -9. -12. -13. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -12. -11. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -15. -21. -26. -30. -33. -34. -36. -37. -35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 21.8 140.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 765.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.06 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 47.3 62.3 to 0.0 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.51 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 8.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/09/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##