* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ELEVEN EP112018 08/05/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 33 34 36 41 47 53 57 59 61 63 66 68 69 70 71 V (KT) LAND 30 32 33 34 36 41 47 53 57 59 61 63 66 68 69 70 71 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 16 20 19 16 9 12 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 2 3 5 7 5 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 320 315 314 319 324 2 315 31 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 30.0 30.1 30.4 30.3 30.7 30.6 30.1 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 166 167 170 170 173 173 168 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -52.9 -53.5 -53.7 -52.1 -52.7 -50.7 -51.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 6 8 6 6 9 7 8 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 72 76 77 78 81 79 77 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -3 -2 -4 1 29 41 71 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 93 135 125 131 160 84 88 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 -4 -5 -6 -8 6 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 274 244 221 206 191 159 217 383 318 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 16.9 18.2 19.5 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.8 97.8 98.9 100.0 101.2 103.8 106.6 109.4 112.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 14 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 38 38 39 38 35 26 17 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 20.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -0. 4. 11. 18. 25. 29. 32. 35. 39. 43. 46. 48. 52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 6. 11. 17. 23. 27. 29. 31. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. 41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.3 96.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 136.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.91 8.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 107.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.73 4.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 36.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.87 -5.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 35.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.33 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.52 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.7% 22.4% 16.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.3% 50.8% Logistic: 3.1% 23.0% 10.5% 5.7% 1.3% 21.8% 21.2% 13.9% Bayesian: 0.6% 9.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.0% 7.0% 8.0% 25.4% Consensus: 4.2% 18.1% 10.6% 2.2% 0.4% 9.6% 15.5% 30.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112018 ELEVEN 08/05/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##