* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TEN EP102018 08/01/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 45 50 53 61 69 80 79 82 84 82 80 80 84 83 84 V (KT) LAND 35 39 45 50 53 61 69 80 79 82 84 82 80 80 84 83 84 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 48 54 61 69 74 79 84 81 77 74 73 75 76 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 14 13 16 11 5 6 7 8 16 12 9 7 2 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 1 0 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 0 1 2 0 0 5 4 SHEAR DIR 54 57 52 56 59 57 68 33 14 335 288 299 304 324 60 277 28 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.7 27.6 27.6 28.0 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.3 26.9 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 149 149 148 141 140 140 144 138 139 139 139 137 132 136 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.4 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.9 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 66 66 66 65 64 61 58 58 58 59 58 58 57 57 59 57 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 13 14 13 14 16 20 18 20 23 24 24 24 27 27 28 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -24 -24 -17 -10 -1 4 16 19 27 36 40 32 32 31 21 19 200 MB DIV 6 18 47 46 46 47 65 34 37 8 -15 -7 15 34 19 -25 18 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -7 -5 -2 -1 -3 -5 -8 -5 -4 -3 -1 1 0 -1 -4 LAND (KM) 1380 1426 1479 1534 1579 1716 1879 2044 2202 2361 2306 2107 1901 1703 1508 1309 1115 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.5 13.7 13.9 13.9 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.7 119.7 120.7 121.7 123.9 126.0 128.0 130.0 132.0 134.0 136.0 138.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 13 13 12 11 19 29 19 8 9 6 8 10 12 15 15 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 19. 21. 23. 25. 26. 26. 27. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 6. 12. 10. 13. 17. 17. 16. 15. 16. 14. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 18. 26. 35. 45. 44. 47. 49. 47. 45. 45. 49. 48. 49. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.8 117.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.73 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.46 3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.34 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 148.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.74 -4.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.68 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 24.5% 18.0% 13.2% 9.0% 12.7% 17.1% 29.6% Logistic: 11.2% 29.3% 12.1% 7.6% 4.1% 5.0% 6.5% 8.9% Bayesian: 0.5% 6.2% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.5% 0.5% 0.1% Consensus: 7.7% 20.0% 10.3% 7.0% 4.4% 6.0% 8.0% 12.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP102018 TEN 08/01/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##