* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BUD EP032018 06/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 38 38 38 32 29 25 22 18 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 40 34 37 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 39 34 37 34 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 7 10 16 23 26 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 1 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 238 231 221 222 224 225 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.0 24.2 24.7 27.5 28.7 26.7 23.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 104 110 139 152 132 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -51.8 -51.8 -51.4 -50.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 4 4 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 62 62 63 62 57 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 13 5 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 40 29 21 25 37 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 25 30 22 42 30 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -4 -4 0 -2 -1 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 24 -26 39 70 -39 -240 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.5 24.6 25.6 28.0 30.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.7 109.9 110.1 110.2 110.3 110.2 110.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 10 11 11 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 3 8 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 11. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -2. -8. -13. -17. -18. -19. -20. -22. -26. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -2. -2. -8. -11. -15. -18. -22. -24. -25. -26. -28. -30. -32. -33. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 21.9 109.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.47 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 130.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.47 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 5.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP032018 BUD 06/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##