* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PHILIPPE AL182017 10/29/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 40 39 37 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 38 37 36 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 35 37 34 31 25 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 43 46 54 66 67 43 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 0 6 4 6 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 222 215 213 212 191 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 27.1 26.6 26.4 26.5 14.0 6.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 132 127 126 127 76 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 125 132 127 126 124 74 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.7 -50.1 -47.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 2 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 48 40 41 40 45 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 88 127 159 231 258 259 352 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 90 120 117 130 92 116 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -14 -110 -106 -127 -149 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 108 25 301 242 220 69 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.6 27.1 29.6 32.8 35.9 42.9 50.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 82.0 79.9 77.8 75.5 73.3 69.8 66.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 31 34 37 37 38 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 17 7 3 8 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 883 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -21. -30. -39. -47. -53. -59. -67. -73. -76. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 18. 18. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -9. -6. -4. -2. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -1. -3. -11. -21. -28. -33. -36. -41. -45. -50. -57. -58. -58. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 24.6 82.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 71.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.53 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 109.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.64 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL182017 PHILIPPE 10/29/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 38 38 37 36 28 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 40 39 39 38 37 29 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 34 26 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 21 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT