* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOSE AL122017 09/18/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 75 73 71 69 66 61 54 44 38 33 30 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 75 73 71 69 66 61 54 44 38 33 30 27 23 18 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 79 77 75 72 68 63 56 51 48 48 50 52 51 47 44 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 37 32 34 33 26 18 26 19 24 14 12 9 14 9 8 3 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 6 0 -1 2 -4 -7 -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 0 2 -1 SHEAR DIR 231 226 224 230 226 223 222 202 227 207 241 266 287 278 193 192 221 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.6 24.0 22.0 21.1 22.6 24.8 26.3 27.2 23.1 22.4 23.1 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 139 136 131 129 127 131 97 85 80 87 100 113 126 93 84 89 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 117 114 109 108 105 107 82 73 70 74 82 90 103 81 71 76 76 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.3 -51.5 -51.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -51.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 1.5 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.1 1.9 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.9 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 6 6 4 3 2 4 2 1 1 2 1 3 1 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 59 56 53 54 54 51 40 36 36 42 47 36 35 38 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 36 36 37 38 37 35 33 29 27 24 22 20 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 58 55 65 71 72 65 72 76 55 32 29 13 -4 -42 -55 -81 -76 200 MB DIV 65 76 67 55 46 55 47 63 43 24 16 -10 -1 -57 -67 -26 8 700-850 TADV 23 23 14 18 8 9 2 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 0 0 1 0 1 LAND (KM) 554 500 447 401 370 368 322 244 214 281 348 416 477 272 197 235 84 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.1 36.7 38.2 39.4 39.9 39.7 39.3 38.7 38.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.6 71.7 71.5 70.9 70.0 69.0 67.9 67.3 67.0 66.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 9 11 1 4 7 HEAT CONTENT 23 19 10 7 8 35 0 0 0 0 0 6 32 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 8 CX,CY: 1/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 646 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -10. -18. -26. -33. -37. -41. -43. -47. -50. -52. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -14. -14. -13. -12. -10. -8. -6. -6. -5. -3. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -10. -16. -20. -24. -26. -28. -32. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -14. -19. -26. -36. -42. -47. -50. -53. -57. -62. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 31.9 71.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 42.8 45.1 to 6.7 0.06 0.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.03 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.71 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 398.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 10.0% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.6% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 3.9% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL122017 JOSE 09/18/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122017 JOSE 09/18/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 5( 12) 4( 15) 3( 18) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 78 75 73 71 69 66 61 54 44 38 33 30 27 23 18 DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 76 74 72 70 67 62 55 45 39 34 31 28 24 19 DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 74 72 70 67 62 55 45 39 34 31 28 24 19 DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 68 66 63 58 51 41 35 30 27 24 20 15 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT