* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IRMA AL112017 09/06/17 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 160 159 160 158 156 151 147 138 135 135 132 134 133 129 102 83 65 V (KT) LAND 160 159 160 158 156 151 147 138 135 135 132 134 133 97 60 37 30 V (KT) LGEM 160 156 151 147 144 142 144 142 140 137 129 123 116 80 50 34 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 3 3 5 5 9 5 10 11 8 17 18 24 33 46 48 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 0 1 -3 0 -2 -2 4 9 5 7 5 -3 -5 2 SHEAR DIR 262 246 340 243 273 342 313 328 292 289 277 261 251 211 229 231 230 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.6 28.4 28.2 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 160 163 163 162 165 165 167 166 169 170 168 170 174 165 144 140 121 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 160 160 157 160 159 157 155 155 156 149 151 168 152 126 118 100 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.2 -50.6 -50.5 -49.6 -49.7 -49.4 -49.4 -48.6 -48.4 -48.1 -47.2 -47.7 -47.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 10 7 3 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 54 53 53 51 51 54 53 56 61 65 65 63 55 63 51 49 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 35 34 35 37 40 40 43 47 49 53 54 54 38 25 15 850 MB ENV VOR 57 53 60 63 61 60 54 73 96 119 147 177 201 152 171 135 92 200 MB DIV 8 8 0 -56 -19 49 30 77 20 58 65 71 57 112 56 25 11 700-850 TADV -2 5 6 5 1 0 5 3 7 11 32 29 31 61 25 3 0 LAND (KM) 407 259 121 67 123 99 156 108 83 79 84 63 73 192 -66 -384 -416 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.6 21.3 21.8 22.4 23.0 23.7 24.6 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.9 63.3 64.6 66.0 67.3 70.0 72.6 75.0 77.1 78.8 80.1 81.1 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 12 11 9 8 6 6 16 19 14 12 9 HEAT CONTENT 54 74 71 59 70 73 65 65 55 70 61 52 57 43 3 3 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 160 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -25. -41. -54. -65. -73. -78. -80. -84. -89. -93. -95. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 1. 4. 6. 10. 13. 14. 16. 19. 21. 20. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 10. 15. 17. 22. 22. 20. -2. -17. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. -2. -4. -9. -13. -21. -25. -25. -28. -26. -27. -31. -58. -77. -95. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 160. LAT, LON: 17.7 61.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.41 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 160.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : -0.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.09 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1030.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.85 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112017 IRMA 09/06/17 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112017 IRMA 09/06/2017 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 81 81( 96) 77( 99) 78(100) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 96(100) 96(100) 99(100) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 160 159 160 158 156 151 147 138 135 135 132 134 133 97 60 37 30 18HR AGO 160 159 160 158 156 151 147 138 135 135 132 134 133 97 60 37 30 12HR AGO 160 157 156 154 152 147 143 134 131 131 128 130 129 93 56 33 26 6HR AGO 160 154 151 150 148 143 139 130 127 127 124 126 125 89 52 29 22 NOW 160 151 145 142 141 136 132 123 120 120 117 119 118 82 45 22 15 IN 6HR 160 159 150 144 141 138 134 125 122 122 119 121 120 84 47 24 17 IN 12HR 160 159 160 151 145 141 137 128 125 125 122 124 123 87 50 27 20