* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FRANKLIN AL072017 08/09/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 42 44 46 46 44 39 42 45 48 51 54 59 64 65 68 70 V (KT) LAND 40 42 44 46 46 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 43 45 46 39 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 13 14 14 18 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -1 0 1 1 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 4 14 21 10 7 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.4 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.5 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 168 170 171 171 160 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 166 157 160 163 165 149 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 9 10 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 70 71 74 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 19 18 12 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 12 10 8 16 30 45 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 47 35 14 29 49 45 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -7 -4 -10 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 31 140 194 218 166 -30 -223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.3 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.8 92.9 94.0 95.0 97.1 99.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 47 30 32 42 53 25 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. 38. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -6. -16. -19. -21. -23. -24. -25. -26. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. -1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 14. 19. 24. 25. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 20.1 90.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 45.1 to 6.7 0.69 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.25 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.84 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.30 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.81 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 25% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 28.5% 14.2% 9.3% 9.2% 12.4% 13.2% 25.4% Logistic: 12.2% 49.3% 40.1% 33.3% 21.3% 26.3% 22.4% 31.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 5.1% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 1.2% 1.3% 40.5% Consensus: 6.7% 27.6% 18.8% 14.3% 10.2% 13.3% 12.3% 32.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072017 FRANKLIN 08/09/2017 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 42 44 46 46 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 40 39 41 43 43 36 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 40 37 36 38 38 31 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 30 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT