* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HILARY EP092017 07/24/17 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 81 88 97 98 97 95 94 91 87 83 75 66 59 50 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 81 88 97 98 97 95 94 91 87 83 75 66 59 50 V (KT) LGEM 65 70 75 79 84 94 99 98 94 87 81 75 69 62 53 45 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 5 3 3 8 13 15 15 14 10 6 7 8 7 10 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 -3 -1 0 0 1 -1 -3 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 155 116 128 130 34 3 13 3 350 337 351 348 336 322 265 256 275 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.6 29.5 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.5 26.9 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.5 23.6 22.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 156 160 160 154 152 147 139 132 129 128 124 118 98 88 80 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.5 -51.1 -51.3 -50.7 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.1 -50.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 75 75 73 76 77 77 77 75 72 69 69 60 59 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 20 19 21 26 27 28 30 34 35 35 36 33 28 25 20 850 MB ENV VOR -18 -7 -8 -19 -26 -14 -12 28 41 67 86 129 146 159 177 149 122 200 MB DIV 11 31 45 21 2 40 68 89 47 76 60 57 37 26 23 24 8 700-850 TADV 1 1 1 1 0 -3 -7 -7 -8 -7 -9 -10 -10 -13 -8 -4 1 LAND (KM) 463 453 457 475 497 560 682 708 766 861 920 1015 1127 1117 1137 963 1055 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.0 15.3 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 19.1 19.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 104.0 104.7 105.4 106.2 107.0 108.9 110.8 112.8 114.7 116.5 118.2 120.0 121.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 10 9 9 8 9 6 9 10 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 24 17 18 24 27 20 17 10 5 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 45.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -1. -3. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 14. 18. 23. 25. 24. 22. 17. 11. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 11. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 16. 23. 32. 33. 32. 30. 29. 26. 22. 18. 10. 1. -6. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.0 104.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.53 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 30.9 to 7.7 0.75 7.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.29 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 96.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.80 -7.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 4.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.4% 38.0% 29.5% 21.9% 15.8% 17.3% 14.6% 10.8% Logistic: 11.1% 36.8% 18.9% 11.4% 5.5% 7.1% 4.4% 2.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 33.9% 6.3% 2.5% 5.4% 14.7% 7.7% 0.4% Consensus: 12.2% 36.2% 18.2% 11.9% 8.9% 13.0% 8.9% 4.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092017 HILARY 07/24/17 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##