* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EUGENE EP052017 07/11/17 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 52 47 43 36 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 52 47 43 36 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 54 49 45 41 34 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 6 6 9 9 9 11 9 12 10 14 15 21 13 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 245 231 250 258 261 234 225 210 212 198 186 198 206 237 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.0 24.7 24.2 23.6 22.2 21.6 21.7 21.5 21.3 21.1 20.3 20.4 21.0 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 113 109 104 98 83 76 77 74 73 70 62 63 72 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -52.3 -52.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.1 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 58 54 51 51 46 46 41 39 33 27 24 24 N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 19 18 17 15 13 11 9 7 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 33 47 57 50 41 17 15 -4 -19 -33 -64 -59 -69 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 -10 -19 -15 -18 -18 -7 -1 -5 16 -1 6 4 -1 N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -5 -4 -2 -3 -1 2 0 3 0 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 808 796 797 788 764 734 740 773 795 819 801 825 869 1082 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.6 21.3 22.0 22.7 24.0 25.1 26.2 27.1 27.9 28.6 29.2 29.8 xx.x N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.0 118.6 119.1 119.6 120.1 121.0 121.8 122.6 123.4 124.1 125.0 126.3 127.6 xxx.x N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 6 11 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -30. -36. -41. -45. -48. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -21. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -17. -19. -20. -19. -18. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -24. -32. -39. -46. -53. -59. -66. -72. -76. -79. -84. -87. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 19.8 118.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.18 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 442.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 62.3 to 0.0 0.90 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP052017 EUGENE 07/11/17 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##