* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERMINE AL092016 09/04/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 56 55 54 50 44 40 37 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 56 55 54 50 44 40 37 33 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 57 55 53 48 44 42 45 48 48 45 41 38 37 37 39 Storm Type TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT SUBT EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 49 50 50 49 44 32 25 9 6 11 11 20 16 13 1 18 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -6 -1 0 -1 -6 -4 -6 -7 -6 -2 -5 -2 0 2 10 10 SHEAR DIR 239 237 234 226 225 223 215 206 227 29 38 24 30 66 158 235 229 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 29.0 28.9 28.2 26.8 25.2 23.0 21.4 22.7 21.1 20.0 15.0 11.0 POT. INT. (KT) 143 139 136 137 141 148 146 136 118 104 90 83 91 85 82 72 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 118 112 108 107 109 114 111 105 94 84 76 73 80 77 75 68 66 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.0 -52.0 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.5 0.9 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.1 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.6 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 2 1 0 3 2 5 3 6 4 6 4 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 52 55 57 59 59 60 57 50 45 44 48 51 53 57 51 50 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 28 29 31 30 27 25 22 21 19 18 16 13 12 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -16 -22 0 6 -1 24 7 19 -9 -41 -44 -36 -47 -6 33 136 171 200 MB DIV 42 39 62 61 39 23 11 18 -30 -19 -16 -46 -20 27 31 47 23 700-850 TADV 6 -1 0 1 3 0 -2 -5 -2 -1 1 5 19 15 3 68 -123 LAND (KM) 287 342 372 372 373 325 299 275 234 190 164 170 234 269 340 158 438 LAT (DEG N) 36.3 36.6 36.9 37.2 37.4 37.8 38.1 38.5 39.0 39.6 40.2 40.7 41.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.6 72.0 71.3 71.1 71.0 71.3 71.4 71.4 71.1 70.7 69.8 68.4 65.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 6 5 3 2 2 2 3 3 4 5 8 13 17 19 19 19 HEAT CONTENT 35 37 50 53 60 61 44 20 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 12 CX,CY: 12/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -21. -24. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -16. -17. -16. -14. -14. -15. -16. -17. -16. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -25. -26. -26. -26. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -6. -10. -16. -20. -23. -27. -35. -41. -49. -58. -59. -61. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.3 72.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 57.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 50.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.21 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.36 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.56 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 236.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.52 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 HERMINE 09/04/2016 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 58 56 55 54 50 44 40 37 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 55 51 45 41 38 34 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 54 50 44 40 37 33 25 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 49 45 39 35 32 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT