* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/31/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 80 75 70 61 58 55 56 57 60 62 64 65 66 66 65 V (KT) LAND 95 88 80 75 70 61 58 55 56 57 60 62 64 65 66 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 95 89 83 77 73 65 60 57 57 60 65 71 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 17 22 17 19 14 18 9 10 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 12 9 2 9 4 6 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 256 244 250 259 250 256 212 217 212 217 254 273 290 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.1 27.3 27.6 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 135 137 140 144 149 150 151 152 153 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 36 35 34 35 35 36 36 36 31 29 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 17 17 17 14 13 11 11 11 12 12 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 8 18 26 31 65 66 60 47 44 43 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -6 3 -1 1 14 4 40 21 -3 -13 -13 -9 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 -1 3 3 4 0 -4 1 3 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 523 420 317 218 130 58 249 387 448 656 905 1181 1459 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.8 18.5 18.3 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.0 19.4 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.8 151.8 152.8 153.8 156.0 158.1 160.2 162.7 165.6 168.4 171.3 174.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 11 13 13 14 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 8 9 12 16 28 46 30 39 53 28 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. -26. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -12. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -15. -20. -25. -34. -37. -40. -39. -38. -35. -33. -31. -30. -29. -29. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.3 149.8 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.09 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 1013.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.00 0.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/31/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##