* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINE AL092016 08/29/16 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 56 63 69 67 69 65 58 50 43 38 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 56 63 46 47 49 45 38 30 23 18 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 33 34 37 41 46 53 41 45 45 42 37 31 26 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 10 15 11 10 11 12 16 24 36 49 57 63 50 49 47 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 0 0 -3 -2 -3 -6 0 -5 3 -6 -2 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 328 303 273 281 292 240 285 248 262 232 238 220 234 240 251 265 282 SST (C) 29.8 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.1 29.9 30.0 30.4 30.5 29.3 29.2 28.7 27.7 27.5 28.1 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 165 163 170 169 169 169 166 169 171 173 159 157 150 135 131 139 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 144 150 152 150 145 144 148 156 161 141 140 133 117 111 115 120 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -52.2 -51.7 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -52.1 -53.1 -54.0 -54.4 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 10 9 10 7 8 5 6 5 4 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 70 69 65 63 65 65 64 65 64 62 52 45 41 43 49 53 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 14 15 18 17 20 19 20 20 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 62 59 66 66 72 63 42 24 -11 26 15 16 -3 -6 -26 -47 -119 200 MB DIV 49 47 15 17 21 7 25 32 8 35 14 38 -9 -7 4 1 -11 700-850 TADV -3 -1 -5 -6 -1 0 5 1 13 10 -7 -16 -21 -19 -6 0 8 LAND (KM) 106 156 216 269 324 398 413 269 121 -57 189 277 414 710 742 757 793 LAT (DEG N) 23.6 23.8 24.0 24.3 24.5 25.1 26.1 27.3 28.5 29.9 31.2 32.4 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.1 84.8 85.5 86.0 86.5 87.0 86.6 85.6 84.0 81.9 79.0 75.6 71.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 5 4 4 6 8 10 13 15 17 18 16 13 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 70 51 36 35 37 39 38 43 31 29 51 42 24 21 17 34 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 597 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 32.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 31. 35. 38. 38. 38. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. -2. -8. -17. -27. -35. -40. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 2. 6. 4. 4. 2. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 17. 26. 33. 39. 37. 39. 35. 28. 20. 13. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 23.6 84.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.70 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.28 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 32.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.11 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.80 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 76.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.8% 13.5% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 11.9% 25.6% Logistic: 3.9% 24.8% 11.7% 5.0% 2.8% 15.4% 37.5% 50.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 2.8% 13.1% 6.9% 1.7% 0.9% 8.4% 16.5% 25.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092016 NINE 08/29/16 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092016 NINE 08/29/2016 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 32 33 35 40 47 56 63 46 47 49 45 38 30 23 18 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 45 54 61 44 45 47 43 36 28 21 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 41 50 57 40 41 43 39 32 24 17 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 43 50 33 34 36 32 25 17 DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT