* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MADELINE EP142016 08/27/16 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 49 54 64 71 74 77 74 72 69 66 64 62 61 62 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 49 54 64 71 74 77 74 72 69 66 64 61 61 62 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 45 49 57 64 68 70 68 63 59 55 50 46 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 12 11 9 5 7 4 4 3 6 9 13 15 17 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -6 -7 -7 -6 -6 -6 0 2 5 4 3 7 5 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 57 60 61 62 72 84 101 163 90 166 175 201 214 222 226 223 230 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.3 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 151 151 152 150 144 136 138 136 134 132 134 137 138 141 149 151 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.3 -53.4 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 -52.6 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 67 67 66 64 65 63 61 58 56 54 53 49 48 48 50 51 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 17 18 18 18 19 18 18 17 15 13 11 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 20 21 28 34 38 34 40 52 25 43 36 29 22 33 46 46 200 MB DIV 74 83 59 52 66 55 64 66 28 8 -3 27 21 27 24 5 11 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -6 -5 -3 0 1 5 8 7 4 0 2 3 2 -1 2 LAND (KM) 1996 1905 1815 1734 1654 1494 1330 1156 977 781 580 371 167 23 162 299 357 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.1 14.6 15.0 15.4 16.2 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.7 18.9 19.0 19.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 137.1 137.8 138.5 139.2 139.8 141.1 142.5 144.0 145.6 147.4 149.3 151.3 153.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 8 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 29 32 31 28 25 20 10 10 8 6 8 12 15 16 23 38 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 22. 23. 24. 24. 25. 26. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 3. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 7. 6. 5. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 36. 39. 42. 39. 37. 34. 31. 29. 27. 26. 27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.6 137.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.0 to 147.4 0.74 8.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 30.9 to 7.7 0.78 6.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 66.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.26 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.75 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 49% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 34.1% 26.1% 17.3% 12.3% 16.6% 49.2% 52.6% Logistic: 3.6% 12.9% 5.8% 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 4.0% 5.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 4.3% 1.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% Consensus: 6.0% 17.1% 11.1% 7.0% 5.4% 6.7% 17.9% 19.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP142016 MADELINE 08/27/16 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##