* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JAVIER EP112016 08/08/16 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 54 55 56 55 52 50 45 42 42 42 42 42 43 44 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 54 55 56 48 45 33 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 50 50 47 37 39 31 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 4 3 6 4 6 6 12 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 -1 -2 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 64 46 47 57 38 312 303 270 254 279 271 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.1 28.2 25.9 26.4 24.8 23.8 23.5 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 154 145 121 126 109 99 96 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -51.3 -50.9 -50.4 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 7 5 5 4 3 3 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 66 67 67 62 60 52 46 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 11 8 5 4 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 48 32 32 34 19 32 13 16 -8 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 49 46 41 29 6 30 -8 12 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -5 -2 -5 -8 -2 -5 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 254 192 111 38 14 10 0 13 -67 4 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.2 21.7 22.2 22.7 23.1 24.2 25.4 26.4 27.5 28.7 29.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 108.0 108.6 109.2 109.8 110.3 111.3 112.1 112.9 113.6 114.3 115.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 16 14 14 12 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 479 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 5. -0. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 21.2 108.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.68 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 30.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.38 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 139.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.75 -5.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 2.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.7% 33.5% 21.7% 16.2% 11.3% 14.7% 17.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.8% 18.4% 11.5% 4.3% 1.4% 3.8% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.9% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 17.6% 11.1% 6.9% 4.2% 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112016 JAVIER 08/08/16 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##