* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ESTELLE EP062016 07/19/16 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 55 54 52 49 45 37 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 55 55 54 52 49 45 37 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 53 51 48 42 37 31 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 4 1 0 2 5 5 9 9 11 15 15 23 32 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 4 6 9 5 8 0 0 5 1 3 3 5 7 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 146 138 166 199 62 193 285 292 282 250 242 238 232 212 223 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.4 25.0 23.5 22.7 22.6 22.9 23.1 22.1 21.8 21.1 21.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 133 126 118 114 98 90 89 92 94 83 80 72 71 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 64 60 58 56 52 51 49 46 47 41 38 37 36 41 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 27 26 25 25 20 18 16 12 9 5 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 44 38 43 38 20 3 -19 -26 -63 -86 -114 -122 -124 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 21 24 0 -17 -4 -1 -22 2 6 0 -19 4 -2 12 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 14 18 12 10 9 14 5 9 14 11 15 15 16 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 968 1040 1121 1198 1261 1417 1576 1745 1777 1830 1814 1817 1830 1832 1842 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.3 21.2 22.3 23.7 25.2 26.8 28.6 30.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.2 120.4 121.5 122.7 123.8 126.3 128.8 131.4 133.7 135.9 137.7 139.1 140.5 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 9 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 500 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -21. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 7. 6. 3. -2. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -13. -13. -15. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -10. -15. -17. -22. -25. -28. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -24. -27. -32. -37. -45. -52. -58. -61. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.9 119.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 3.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.20 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.92 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.64 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.0% 21.2% 16.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 3.9% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 8.4% 6.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062016 ESTELLE 07/19/16 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##