* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PATRICIA EP202015 10/21/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 46 54 64 73 90 93 75 62 54 48 46 45 45 45 43 43 V (KT) LAND 40 46 54 64 73 90 93 58 37 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 40 44 49 55 62 77 84 55 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 6 4 3 5 9 13 27 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -1 -3 -5 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 26 27 5 300 217 194 198 206 232 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.5 30.7 30.6 30.0 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 169 169 170 171 171 165 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -50.8 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 10 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 81 80 80 77 70 66 57 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 17 18 22 17 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 62 58 52 43 67 78 102 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 96 99 77 82 111 137 155 105 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -13 -8 -5 0 1 3 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 340 337 346 332 323 218 83 -90 -99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.4 13.8 14.4 14.9 16.4 18.2 20.3 22.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.6 99.7 100.8 101.7 102.7 104.0 104.4 104.5 104.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 58 57 54 60 46 45 31 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 416 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 79.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 10. 16. 21. 24. 26. 29. 33. 36. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 4. -10. -12. -12. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -10. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 16. 24. 22. 13. 3. -3. -8. -13. -15. -15. -15. -14. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 14. 24. 33. 50. 53. 35. 22. 14. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. 3. 3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.0 98.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.84 20.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 10.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 30.9 to 7.7 0.77 14.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 93.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.65 11.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 12.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.90 -15.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 7.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 10.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 57.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.54 4.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.69 1.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 80% is 6.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 8.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 58% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 91% is 15.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 63% is 13.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.0% 79.7% 67.0% 52.6% 49.9% 58.0% 90.5% 62.6% Logistic: 48.8% 89.9% 80.7% 68.7% 57.4% 81.3% 77.5% 8.4% Bayesian: 41.0% 89.8% 90.9% 84.7% 45.2% 91.1% 80.4% 1.3% Consensus: 37.9% 86.5% 79.5% 68.7% 50.8% 76.8% 82.8% 24.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202015 PATRICIA 10/21/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##