* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IDA AL102015 09/21/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 51 51 50 47 52 51 51 55 60 61 66 71 73 76 V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 51 51 50 47 52 51 51 55 60 61 66 71 73 76 V (KT) LGEM 45 47 49 51 52 51 51 49 46 44 44 47 52 59 67 73 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 12 16 21 29 22 26 19 17 14 14 11 12 25 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 9 10 12 10 9 4 0 -1 2 -2 0 1 2 8 5 SHEAR DIR 255 253 274 288 290 287 302 284 305 285 284 254 279 222 209 201 219 SST (C) 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.6 28.9 29.1 29.2 28.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 136 135 135 135 135 133 134 136 138 143 148 151 153 142 137 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 121 119 117 116 116 117 114 116 118 121 125 129 130 131 121 116 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.0 -54.3 -54.2 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 10 9 10 9 8 6 700-500 MB RH 68 68 69 68 66 59 55 53 46 43 45 47 48 49 51 50 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 19 19 20 19 23 21 20 21 22 22 25 28 31 35 850 MB ENV VOR 9 4 5 5 14 25 44 76 58 57 43 45 32 42 48 70 84 200 MB DIV 40 47 39 39 37 -7 13 34 4 11 23 28 22 28 22 59 22 700-850 TADV -1 2 0 1 0 -4 0 -4 5 0 3 1 2 4 6 0 -8 LAND (KM) 1750 1778 1792 1798 1804 1820 1823 1835 1848 1866 1884 1876 1862 1883 1924 1989 2058 LAT (DEG N) 20.2 20.7 21.1 21.3 21.4 21.4 21.2 21.0 21.2 21.7 22.3 23.1 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.7 47.9 48.1 48.1 48.2 48.0 47.8 47.5 47.5 47.7 48.0 48.4 48.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 3 2 0 1 2 0 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 17 18 19 18 16 15 15 17 20 25 30 35 36 27 21 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 664 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 6. 3. 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. 7. 6. 6. 10. 15. 16. 21. 26. 28. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 20.2 47.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.4 45.1 to 6.7 0.46 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.11 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 140.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.78 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.1% Logistic: 1.3% 4.4% 1.7% 1.6% 0.8% 3.4% 2.1% 0.8% Bayesian: 2.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.1% 5.3% 0.6% 0.5% 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102015 IDA 09/21/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102015 IDA 09/21/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 47 49 51 51 50 47 52 51 51 55 60 61 66 71 73 76 18HR AGO 45 44 46 48 48 47 44 49 48 48 52 57 58 63 68 70 73 12HR AGO 45 42 41 43 43 42 39 44 43 43 47 52 53 58 63 65 68 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 35 34 31 36 35 35 39 44 45 50 55 57 60 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT