* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HENRI AL082015 09/10/15 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 48 48 42 37 32 30 26 23 22 22 26 V (KT) LAND 35 36 37 39 40 43 48 48 42 37 32 30 26 23 22 22 26 V (KT) LGEM 35 35 35 36 37 42 46 45 42 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 19 17 10 6 3 4 13 27 34 46 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -3 -1 1 4 1 1 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 198 195 205 210 258 302 277 284 283 316 315 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.4 27.8 27.7 24.9 18.6 12.9 16.5 15.8 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 131 130 130 136 135 108 79 70 76 75 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 113 118 117 95 74 68 72 71 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -54.6 -54.5 -54.6 -54.8 -54.7 -55.4 -55.9 -57.0 -57.3 -57.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0.4 -0.7 -1.1 -1.4 -1.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 8 8 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 51 52 59 67 57 54 50 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 10 9 8 11 12 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -23 -32 -47 -50 -31 17 -16 -75 -75 -49 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 13 19 33 27 39 54 11 -10 -55 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 10 10 17 10 20 42 41 24 44 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1330 1204 1079 937 808 541 278 419 916 1517 1241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.1 33.3 34.5 36.1 37.6 41.1 44.2 46.6 47.4 46.9 46.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.9 60.8 60.8 60.3 59.9 57.6 53.2 47.5 40.6 32.7 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 14 16 18 21 23 23 26 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 9 14 19 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 7 CX,CY: 0/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 2. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 5. -1. -8. -12. -16. -20. -23. -24. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -5. -10. -11. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 13. 13. 7. 2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -13. -13. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.1 60.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.77 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.46 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 252.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 79.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.21 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 15.6% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 4.1% 3.0% 1.1% 0.1% 2.0% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 6.6% 4.6% 0.4% 0.0% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082015 HENRI 09/10/15 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082015 HENRI 09/10/2015 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 36 37 39 40 43 48 48 42 37 32 30 26 23 22 22 26 18HR AGO 35 34 35 37 38 41 46 46 40 35 30 28 24 21 20 20 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 33 34 37 42 42 36 31 26 24 20 17 16 16 20 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 34 34 28 23 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT