* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIKA AL052015 08/27/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 36 35 33 34 37 45 53 60 69 74 77 76 75 74 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 33 34 37 44 52 60 69 74 77 75 75 74 V (KT) LGEM 40 38 37 35 34 31 29 29 31 36 43 52 59 65 69 71 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 21 28 29 27 26 20 16 6 12 9 13 11 17 13 19 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 5 4 5 1 0 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 3 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 292 280 288 296 293 281 295 305 289 260 226 243 226 255 239 253 244 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.2 29.8 30.5 30.9 30.3 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 148 152 152 160 156 166 171 170 170 169 167 163 164 164 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 145 148 147 153 146 152 163 166 150 144 141 136 134 133 130 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.5 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 12 12 10 10 9 8 8 6 8 700-500 MB RH 52 51 53 55 54 56 57 60 63 61 63 59 62 57 63 60 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 14 14 12 10 11 11 13 15 18 21 22 23 23 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -18 -10 -9 -7 -25 -47 -63 -51 -40 -14 -16 5 2 21 18 29 200 MB DIV 49 57 42 10 0 12 26 30 36 42 45 47 47 35 52 36 54 700-850 TADV -7 -6 -7 -5 -1 -1 4 -4 5 2 9 7 14 14 10 6 0 LAND (KM) 298 146 33 32 11 56 152 199 230 176 76 72 95 132 160 167 129 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.4 19.0 20.3 21.6 22.9 24.1 25.4 26.6 27.6 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 63.5 64.8 66.2 67.5 68.8 71.5 73.8 75.8 77.4 78.5 79.3 79.6 79.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 9 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 38 45 52 59 54 53 64 63 67 53 46 43 41 42 40 35 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 21. 24. 27. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -4. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -6. -3. 5. 13. 20. 29. 34. 37. 36. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 16.6 63.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 38.0 45.1 to 6.7 0.18 0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 46.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.29 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.37 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.6% 8.7% 5.7% 4.5% 0.0% 6.6% 6.6% 13.8% Logistic: 1.1% 1.7% 0.6% 0.6% 0.4% 1.6% 4.4% 11.8% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 1.3% 3.5% 2.1% 1.7% 0.1% 2.7% 3.7% 8.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052015 ERIKA 08/27/2015 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 39 38 37 35 33 34 37 44 52 60 69 74 77 75 75 74 18HR AGO 40 39 38 37 35 33 34 37 44 52 60 69 74 77 75 75 74 12HR AGO 40 37 36 35 33 31 32 35 42 50 58 67 72 75 73 73 72 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 28 26 27 30 37 45 53 62 67 70 68 68 67 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT