* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ANDRES EP012015 05/30/15 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 89 87 84 78 69 64 56 47 39 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 90 89 87 84 78 69 64 56 47 39 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 90 87 82 78 69 63 55 47 39 33 30 27 24 20 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 12 8 5 5 11 11 6 7 6 10 16 21 13 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 2 2 3 5 1 4 -2 -2 0 2 0 -4 -1 4 SHEAR DIR 320 305 291 310 314 278 262 265 284 232 267 244 270 279 281 281 304 SST (C) 26.7 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.7 25.6 25.5 24.6 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.8 24.1 24.1 POT. INT. (KT) 129 125 125 124 125 130 118 117 108 108 103 100 98 96 98 101 101 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.9 -52.1 -52.8 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 67 64 57 59 57 53 49 41 36 26 20 14 10 7 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 33 33 34 34 35 32 28 26 24 22 20 17 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 52 70 58 61 71 99 102 103 82 86 69 82 91 100 80 57 45 200 MB DIV 84 62 60 51 81 21 14 -11 -14 -10 -45 -45 -22 -50 -30 -30 -5 700-850 TADV 1 4 6 0 1 7 9 9 7 8 2 0 1 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 1124 1125 1132 1152 1172 1208 1267 1337 1426 1511 1608 1707 1792 1867 1952 2062 2157 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.1 116.7 117.3 117.9 118.5 119.8 121.3 122.8 124.5 126.1 127.6 128.8 129.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 3 2 1 1 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 626 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -20. -26. -30. -35. -39. -42. -46. -49. -53. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -12. -14. -15. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -3. -6. -12. -21. -26. -34. -43. -51. -57. -62. -68. -73. -76. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 14.6 116.1 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.07 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.32 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.52 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 319.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.57 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.26 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 17.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.2% 11.7% 3.0% 2.6% 0.5% 1.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 9.9% 1.0% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012015 ANDRES 05/30/15 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##