* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HERNAN EP082014 07/27/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 68 68 65 59 54 45 36 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 68 68 65 59 54 45 36 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 68 68 65 57 49 41 34 28 22 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 11 14 8 12 13 9 19 27 27 22 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 7 6 7 0 2 2 -8 -8 -4 -2 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 277 253 244 281 299 198 176 180 345 354 345 331 326 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.1 28.6 27.7 27.3 25.7 24.5 23.7 23.1 22.7 22.6 23.0 22.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 152 143 138 121 108 99 93 88 87 91 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -51.6 -52.0 -52.3 -51.7 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 6 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 57 58 56 55 50 44 39 35 32 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 19 19 16 16 14 12 12 9 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -22 -13 -12 -20 -26 -32 -35 -32 -47 -44 -45 -41 -42 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 43 40 11 1 7 -9 16 -48 -36 -65 -56 -39 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 3 6 5 9 1 7 -1 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 605 555 531 549 572 631 733 820 942 1087 1229 1369 1493 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.2 18.9 19.7 20.4 21.6 22.5 23.1 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.7 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 110.5 111.7 112.8 114.0 115.2 117.4 119.4 121.3 123.1 124.8 126.4 127.9 129.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 14 13 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 15 10 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -22. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -10. -11. -14. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 8. 8. 5. -1. -6. -15. -24. -35. -41. -48. -49. -51. -52. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.4 110.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.52 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 5.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.4 30.9 to 7.7 0.20 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.26 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 355.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.2 to -2.3 0.40 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.0% 27.5% 21.9% 17.0% 11.7% 15.5% 11.9% 0.0% Logistic: 21.6% 17.2% 14.7% 7.9% 2.0% 4.5% 0.5% 0.2% Bayesian: 2.7% 6.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.1% 16.9% 12.3% 8.4% 4.6% 6.7% 4.1% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082014 HERNAN 07/27/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##