* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JERRY AL112013 10/01/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 52 53 53 55 55 56 55 54 52 49 45 43 47 65 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 52 53 53 55 55 56 55 54 52 49 45 43 47 65 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 52 53 53 52 51 52 54 56 57 55 52 49 46 49 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 23 21 16 19 17 14 12 19 20 26 23 30 33 33 28 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 2 3 0 0 -4 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 313 320 324 319 308 327 308 309 282 271 275 264 262 252 247 242 259 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.4 26.4 25.5 25.5 25.6 25.6 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 129 129 128 127 125 126 127 129 128 116 107 106 106 106 105 ADJ. POT. INT. 108 106 108 109 108 108 106 106 106 109 108 98 90 88 87 87 86 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.6 -55.8 -55.8 -55.7 -55.7 -55.9 -55.4 -55.2 -55.6 -56.4 -56.9 -57.2 -57.4 -58.2 -58.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 44 41 39 36 35 39 41 42 44 43 42 44 42 43 45 39 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 8 10 11 11 10 10 9 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 3 6 23 850 MB ENV VOR -37 -27 -15 -19 -25 -38 -39 -44 -28 -28 -39 -53 -61 -58 -40 -27 -46 200 MB DIV -4 -55 -51 -7 -5 -8 -8 -2 -16 14 11 12 13 14 12 -9 -12 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -1 -6 -1 0 -16 LAND (KM) 2281 2295 2310 2300 2291 2234 2155 2080 2001 1926 1855 1803 1789 1800 1817 1831 1835 LAT (DEG N) 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.3 27.9 28.5 29.2 30.0 30.9 31.8 32.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 44.0 44.1 44.1 44.6 45.1 46.2 47.1 47.6 47.7 47.2 46.2 44.8 43.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 7 7 5 4 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 15 17 19 17 16 28 22 13 10 9 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 6. 4. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -13. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 12. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 4. 0. -2. 2. 20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 27.5 44.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.3 45.1 to 6.7 0.44 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.10 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -24.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.03 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.64 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 395.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.52 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 45.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.55 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.5% 9.6% 7.7% 6.5% 9.3% 10.6% 12.8% Logistic: 3.6% 4.0% 3.6% 1.2% 0.2% 1.5% 1.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 5.9% 4.5% 3.0% 2.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL112013 JERRY 10/01/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL112013 JERRY 10/01/2013 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 51 52 53 53 55 55 56 55 54 52 49 45 43 47 65 18HR AGO 45 44 47 48 49 49 51 51 52 51 50 48 45 41 39 43 61 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 43 43 45 45 46 45 44 42 39 35 33 37 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 36 36 38 38 39 38 37 35 32 28 26 30 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT