* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERIN AL052013 08/15/13 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 40 43 46 48 49 50 51 53 55 58 60 63 67 71 74 V (KT) LAND 35 38 40 43 46 48 49 50 51 53 55 58 60 63 67 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 43 45 48 50 50 49 48 48 50 54 61 71 82 92 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 5 6 8 11 14 12 8 6 1 4 3 5 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 1 2 2 -1 1 -3 -3 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 347 6 52 100 116 137 186 186 223 197 262 231 348 119 358 131 338 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.9 26.4 26.0 25.8 25.7 26.0 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.6 27.5 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 124 119 115 113 111 114 118 122 126 130 129 132 131 137 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 126 121 115 111 108 105 107 111 114 119 124 122 125 124 131 134 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -53.2 -52.9 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 74 74 72 71 69 67 61 57 51 48 46 40 38 34 34 35 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 15 16 16 15 13 12 11 10 8 7 6 4 4 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 52 49 52 44 43 64 56 55 41 32 22 8 -4 -20 -27 200 MB DIV 44 55 43 34 25 20 3 -1 -21 -5 -6 -9 -2 -14 -5 3 13 700-850 TADV -12 -11 -12 -9 -6 -9 -4 -4 -1 -1 0 3 2 5 4 5 7 LAND (KM) 905 1048 1192 1338 1483 1754 2014 2052 1923 1781 1643 1518 1424 1272 1102 939 676 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.5 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.5 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 25.9 27.3 28.6 29.9 31.3 33.8 36.2 38.4 40.5 42.6 44.8 47.3 49.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 13 13 13 12 11 10 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 2 7 12 14 14 18 14 25 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 19. 20. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 18. 20. 23. 25. 28. 32. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.3 25.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052013 ERIN 08/15/13 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 45.1 to 6.7 0.80 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.69 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 128.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 16.5% 11.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 30.4% 18.5% 4.3% 2.2% 8.6% 6.4% 3.3% Bayesian: 2.3% 4.2% 1.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.8% 6.3% 1.2% Consensus: 4.8% 17.0% 10.2% 4.0% 0.8% 3.5% 4.2% 1.5% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052013 ERIN 08/15/2013 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 40 43 46 48 49 50 51 53 55 58 60 63 67 71 74 18HR AGO 35 34 36 39 42 44 45 46 47 49 51 54 56 59 63 67 70 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 39 40 41 42 44 46 49 51 54 58 62 65 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 30 31 32 33 35 37 40 42 45 49 53 56 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT