* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EIGHT EP082013 08/04/13 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 67 73 76 74 74 70 67 61 55 54 54 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 49 59 67 73 76 74 74 70 67 61 55 54 54 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 35 37 39 45 52 60 64 63 59 52 46 40 34 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 8 15 12 11 6 4 3 6 12 8 10 9 14 15 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -5 -7 -9 -5 -5 -3 0 0 1 -2 4 5 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 357 35 44 58 76 71 49 333 284 289 271 278 275 286 274 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.5 27.3 27.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 24.4 25.2 24.8 24.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 142 141 138 136 137 128 128 125 107 115 111 110 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.4 -52.6 -53.1 -52.4 -53.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 76 75 73 73 75 76 75 73 69 69 67 64 59 54 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 11 12 12 13 13 15 15 16 17 16 16 14 12 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 16 19 35 41 44 41 39 34 28 28 25 16 9 11 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 87 93 59 53 80 128 114 96 82 83 43 56 43 47 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -2 -1 -3 -4 -3 -2 2 10 5 10 8 15 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1843 1911 1979 2045 2113 2221 2295 2346 2283 2081 1861 1635 1415 1199 985 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.8 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.5 12.7 13.3 14.1 15.0 15.9 16.8 17.6 18.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.2 126.0 126.8 127.6 129.1 130.7 132.2 133.8 135.5 137.4 139.4 141.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 11 12 14 15 13 9 8 13 3 5 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 592 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 22. 24. 24. 23. 22. 21. 21. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 11. 8. 8. 5. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 19. 29. 37. 43. 46. 44. 44. 40. 37. 31. 25. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 124.4 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.70 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 30.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.56 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 57.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.85 -5.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.10 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.2 to -2.3 0.74 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 37% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.4% 29.6% 19.9% 14.5% 0.0% 0.0% 37.5% 51.3% Logistic: 14.3% 47.0% 26.6% 18.9% 11.9% 30.3% 52.5% 28.5% Bayesian: 4.8% 17.8% 6.9% 2.5% 0.4% 9.0% 6.1% 0.4% Consensus: 10.2% 31.5% 17.8% 11.9% 4.1% 13.1% 32.0% 26.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082013 EIGHT 08/04/13 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##