* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GIL EP072013 08/02/13 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 78 81 79 75 69 66 64 63 62 61 58 57 56 56 54 V (KT) LAND 75 77 78 81 79 75 69 66 64 63 62 61 58 57 56 56 54 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 76 74 72 67 63 57 53 50 49 46 44 44 44 45 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 3 3 4 3 7 15 7 2 8 13 8 4 2 4 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 4 5 0 2 7 7 3 4 5 4 6 1 4 SHEAR DIR 224 236 121 89 263 296 324 352 235 146 174 150 214 148 131 120 153 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.3 26.6 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 135 131 130 127 126 129 128 128 130 123 124 123 121 125 128 129 127 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 60 62 63 62 63 67 68 71 71 71 67 64 62 60 60 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 15 15 16 15 16 15 17 16 16 17 17 16 18 17 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR -21 -23 -13 -7 -4 -3 -14 -1 -3 11 35 50 48 49 48 45 45 200 MB DIV 19 27 23 70 50 46 43 47 52 52 53 61 47 55 39 52 34 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 0 1 1 2 0 0 -2 -1 -3 LAND (KM) 1909 1985 2048 2107 2167 2292 2324 2182 2039 1890 1732 1562 1401 1230 1051 868 700 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.7 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.4 14.2 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 126.9 127.9 128.8 129.7 130.5 132.1 133.5 134.9 136.3 137.8 139.4 141.2 142.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 3 2 1 7 5 4 5 0 1 6 1 1 2 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -22. -23. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 6. 4. -0. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. -17. -18. -19. -19. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 14.5 126.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 27.0 to 147.4 0.23 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.8 30.9 to 7.7 0.70 5.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.37 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 358.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 4.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 62.3 to 0.0 0.98 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.2 to -2.3 0.54 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 2.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.7% 26.2% 20.3% 15.4% 11.2% 13.5% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 7.3% 15.6% 11.9% 6.0% 2.8% 1.3% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 14.0% 10.7% 7.1% 4.7% 4.9% 3.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP072013 GIL 08/02/13 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##