* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * BARRY AL022013 06/19/13 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 42 40 36 34 36 38 39 41 40 40 41 42 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 34 31 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 13 11 9 10 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 2 3 2 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 243 241 259 244 249 266 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.8 27.9 26.9 26.3 26.1 26.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 146 133 121 114 112 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 138 132 120 108 102 101 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 12 10 9 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 66 67 67 65 66 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 11 13 10 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -1 3 1 0 19 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 55 60 35 30 41 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -5 0 2 -9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 100 62 12 -30 -73 -154 -244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.7 19.7 19.7 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.1 95.6 96.2 96.7 97.2 98.1 99.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 5 5 5 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 15 14 8 2 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 641 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 15. 17. 18. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. -0. -5. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 5. 1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 19.6 95.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL022013 BARRY 06/19/13 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 3.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.9 45.1 to 6.7 0.63 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.19 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 75.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.85 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 14.9% 10.2% 7.7% 6.9% 9.7% 9.1% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 21.5% 11.8% 6.6% 3.0% 11.1% 10.0% 10.3% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% Consensus: 3.5% 12.4% 7.4% 4.8% 3.3% 7.0% 6.4% 3.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL022013 BARRY 06/19/13 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL022013 BARRY 06/19/2013 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 36 31 28 25 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 35 32 31 26 23 20 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 22 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT