* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYONE EP212020 11/18/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 22 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 29 30 30 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 28 25 22 20 20 20 21 23 25 26 29 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 23 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 6 8 9 14 17 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 5 5 4 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 247 257 259 263 266 278 277 283 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.5 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 143 138 134 131 127 118 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 55 55 53 47 45 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 9 8 8 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -29 -43 -41 -29 -31 -31 -41 -47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 33 -4 -8 -29 -89 -27 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 1 3 4 7 4 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 949 988 1038 1098 1141 1244 1403 1559 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.0 17.2 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 114.7 115.8 116.8 117.9 118.9 120.9 123.1 125.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 18 10 5 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 20. 22. 23. 22. 22. 22. 22. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -7. -5. -4. -1. -0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.6 114.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/18/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.3 30.0 to 135.0 0.75 6.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.33 2.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.23 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 28.1 to 8.6 0.30 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 188.6 742.0 to -74.0 0.68 -4.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.15 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 34.4 to 2.3 0.76 3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.05 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 56.6 to 0.0 0.63 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.0 to -2.0 0.55 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 18.5% 13.2% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.9% 14.9% 10.1% 6.5% 0.9% 1.6% 0.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 11.1% 7.8% 5.3% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP212020 TWENTYONE 11/18/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##