* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/16/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 97 101 105 102 95 89 85 84 83 84 86 89 90 92 92 V (KT) LAND 85 91 97 101 105 64 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 85 91 98 103 104 65 38 30 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 4 7 10 10 11 6 8 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 -1 0 0 2 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 63 151 84 65 95 89 69 71 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.2 28.9 28.9 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 147 147 147 154 149 149 140 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 146 142 142 141 147 142 143 134 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.2 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 70 71 72 71 74 79 79 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 32 33 36 29 22 16 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 90 93 94 109 137 184 168 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 101 87 103 140 135 81 93 78 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 0 1 0 -1 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 384 294 205 124 46 -89 -191 -125 -89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.8 13.9 14.1 14.1 14.0 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.8 80.6 81.4 82.1 82.9 84.3 85.7 87.2 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 40 27 25 28 16 6 8 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 13.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. -11. -12. -11. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. -1. -10. -19. -25. -27. -29. -29. -30. -29. -28. -27. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 17. 10. 4. 0. -1. -2. -1. 1. 4. 5. 7. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 13.2 79.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 11.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.83 7.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.23 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 33.3 to 3.1 0.82 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.62 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.30 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.6 to -2.7 0.49 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 113.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.71 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.68 2.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 4.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 6.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.7% 48.8% 37.9% 23.4% 18.1% 21.7% 15.0% 0.0% Logistic: 32.4% 61.6% 45.3% 41.8% 30.6% 26.4% 16.5% 10.6% Bayesian: 39.7% 80.2% 58.9% 30.5% 43.5% 49.0% 6.8% 3.3% Consensus: 31.9% 63.5% 47.4% 31.9% 30.7% 32.4% 12.7% 4.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/16/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/16/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 20( 28) 27( 47) 0( 47) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 39 31( 58) 21( 67) 0( 67) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 91 97 101 105 64 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 85 84 90 94 98 57 32 24 21 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 85 82 81 85 89 48 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 79 38 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 91 82 76 73 49 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 85 91 97 88 82 78 53 45 42 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41