* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/15/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 63 72 81 90 102 110 112 107 96 87 85 85 87 88 90 89 V (KT) LAND 55 63 72 81 90 102 110 76 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 55 62 71 80 89 105 113 81 44 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 7 9 7 3 5 10 9 7 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -6 -4 1 0 -3 -1 2 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 305 4 45 124 90 81 90 64 35 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.0 28.8 29.4 29.0 28.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 155 157 157 151 147 157 150 147 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 150 151 153 153 146 141 150 144 140 133 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.2 -53.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -52.1 -52.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 72 71 69 71 72 71 73 78 75 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 23 26 28 30 32 31 27 20 16 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 66 70 80 86 96 111 135 172 173 161 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 118 102 96 110 107 101 127 59 87 54 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 -1 -2 -1 1 2 1 0 -3 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 258 319 381 392 400 236 73 -55 -194 -146 -44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 76.7 77.4 78.0 78.8 79.5 81.1 82.6 84.0 85.3 86.6 87.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 49 49 48 45 31 25 33 4 4 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 15. 17. 19. 20. 20. 20. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 11. 5. -4. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 4. 8. 12. 17. 16. 11. 6. 1. -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 17. 26. 35. 47. 55. 57. 52. 41. 32. 30. 30. 32. 33. 35. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 12.6 76.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 14.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.4 41.0 to 7.4 0.85 9.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.32 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 33.3 to 3.1 0.69 5.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 5.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.67 2.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.6 to -2.7 0.32 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.68 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 132.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.78 2.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 64% is 5.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 8.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 55% is 11.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 60% is 12.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 48% is 9.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.3% 63.8% 48.2% 34.1% 27.1% 54.8% 60.0% 48.5% Logistic: 24.7% 70.3% 51.1% 45.6% 28.9% 50.9% 40.6% 38.3% Bayesian: 39.5% 85.2% 61.9% 24.3% 16.6% 78.2% 28.1% 33.9% Consensus: 29.5% 73.1% 53.7% 34.6% 24.2% 61.3% 42.9% 40.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/15/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/15/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 12( 16) 24( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 3( 3) 18( 20) 6( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 63 72 81 90 102 110 76 43 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 55 54 63 72 81 93 101 67 34 23 19 18 18 18 18 18 18 12HR AGO 55 52 51 60 69 81 89 55 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 54 66 74 40 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT