* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * IOTA AL312020 11/14/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 50 62 76 85 93 91 84 81 79 82 83 86 86 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 50 62 76 71 43 32 28 27 29 32 33 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 38 40 44 55 67 69 42 31 28 27 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 8 8 10 6 6 4 8 10 7 11 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -3 -4 -3 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 292 272 302 348 115 114 92 76 49 44 64 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 29.3 29.3 28.7 28.7 27.8 27.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 153 152 152 156 154 148 155 155 146 146 133 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 153 147 147 147 152 150 143 148 149 139 140 127 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -53.3 -53.1 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 9 8 6 6 7 6 7 5 6 4 5 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 68 69 67 69 69 69 73 76 73 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 17 17 17 21 25 29 28 29 24 18 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 67 64 69 74 88 102 120 150 172 156 118 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 109 106 88 78 86 79 80 53 78 64 89 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 1 1 0 -2 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 233 275 322 389 436 318 134 -16 -142 -192 -74 -21 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.0 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.1 13.9 13.7 13.4 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.8 76.4 77.0 77.8 78.5 80.3 82.0 83.5 84.8 86.2 87.6 89.1 90.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 6 7 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 48 48 50 52 50 42 24 31 5 4 14 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 25. 29. 31. 34. 34. 35. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -10. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 12. 12. 14. 6. -3. -10. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 15. 27. 41. 50. 58. 56. 49. 46. 44. 47. 48. 51. 51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 12.9 75.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.84 2.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 49.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.34 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.28 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.86 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.58 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 814.0 to -65.0 0.80 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.8 95.0 to 0.0 0.94 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 60% is 11.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 20.2% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0% 23.9% 59.8% Logistic: 5.7% 27.2% 13.4% 4.2% 1.3% 8.8% 18.6% 28.0% Bayesian: 2.3% 10.2% 5.9% 0.2% 0.3% 5.2% 16.7% 53.7% Consensus: 4.4% 19.2% 10.3% 1.5% 0.5% 8.7% 19.7% 47.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL312020 IOTA 11/14/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL312020 IOTA 11/14/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 44 50 62 76 71 43 32 28 27 29 32 33 35 36 18HR AGO 35 34 37 41 47 59 73 68 40 29 25 24 26 29 30 32 33 12HR AGO 35 32 31 35 41 53 67 62 34 23 19 18 20 23 24 26 27 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 43 57 52 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT