* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/11/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 42 43 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 45 42 43 39 31 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 55 52 49 45 43 44 45 43 39 34 32 31 31 N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SUBT N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 61 58 52 46 48 32 31 26 31 35 27 23 17 21 23 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -3 2 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 3 2 -2 0 -2 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 241 239 236 242 261 267 294 332 8 18 2 344 278 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 24.5 24.5 24.3 23.9 23.8 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.1 21.8 21.8 21.6 20.3 19.1 18.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 101 101 100 97 96 92 90 88 86 84 84 83 80 77 75 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 89 89 88 85 85 82 80 78 76 74 74 74 72 71 69 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.2 -57.6 -57.3 -57.0 -57.3 -57.9 -58.3 -58.0 -58.0 -57.8 -57.8 -58.1 -58.7 -60.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.4 1.0 1.2 1.1 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.8 0.3 0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 42 42 40 41 48 47 47 48 50 55 55 49 48 55 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 25 25 26 27 27 26 27 25 24 20 17 16 15 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 66 48 46 41 49 67 52 40 14 -19 -52 -75 -92 -102 -41 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 43 47 53 46 57 32 76 -34 -31 -10 -17 -6 27 27 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -15 -10 -6 -10 -15 -1 13 6 12 8 19 35 59 38 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2063 1982 1903 1807 1727 1545 1373 1225 1101 986 928 912 869 702 578 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.4 31.0 31.6 32.2 32.6 32.9 33.4 34.0 35.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.8 34.8 33.8 32.7 31.7 29.3 27.0 24.9 23.1 21.5 20.3 19.4 18.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 11 10 8 7 6 5 7 10 12 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 11 CX,CY: 11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 654 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30. -33. -35. -37. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -11. -14. -18. -21. -25. -27. -30. -32. -32. -31. -32. -32. -34. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 19. 20. 21. 19. 18. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -5. -8. -13. -19. -21. -22. -26. -25. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -18. -17. -21. -29. -39. -47. -50. -52. -58. -61. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 29.4 35.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.60 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 62.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.42 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.6 to -2.7 0.63 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.36 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 351.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.53 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.3 95.0 to 0.0 0.02 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/11/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/11/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 57 53 50 48 45 42 43 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 55 52 50 47 44 45 41 33 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 53 51 48 45 46 42 34 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 48 45 42 43 39 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT