* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 58 54 50 44 43 40 36 35 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 61 58 54 50 44 43 40 36 35 30 24 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 62 59 55 48 43 41 40 41 41 40 37 35 33 33 36 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 53 59 63 62 54 49 37 36 31 28 21 29 23 29 21 16 54 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -4 -7 -4 -3 -4 -6 -6 -4 1 -3 0 -4 -4 4 10 SHEAR DIR 230 228 238 241 238 244 258 266 279 297 341 350 1 348 332 237 231 SST (C) 24.8 24.9 24.7 24.6 24.4 23.9 23.2 22.9 22.7 22.3 22.0 21.8 21.5 20.0 18.2 15.5 11.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 102 102 100 97 93 91 90 87 85 84 84 81 79 75 71 ADJ. POT. INT. 93 91 90 89 88 86 83 81 80 77 76 75 75 74 75 72 69 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -57.4 -57.4 -57.2 -57.4 -57.0 -57.4 -58.0 -58.2 -57.6 -57.9 -57.8 -58.0 -58.3 -59.3 -59.5 -57.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 1.2 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 39 39 39 39 39 45 48 51 50 51 50 50 47 46 46 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 24 26 24 24 25 27 26 24 25 24 22 20 17 15 15 20 850 MB ENV VOR 91 79 60 52 48 64 70 63 42 29 11 1 -36 -53 -86 -53 -99 200 MB DIV 71 58 45 42 39 31 61 47 30 -44 -21 -39 -28 -9 22 39 26 700-850 TADV -23 -14 -6 -9 -11 -6 -22 -2 11 13 8 6 16 20 48 -59 -97 LAND (KM) 2252 2156 2062 1977 1895 1722 1540 1355 1185 1055 939 856 840 745 522 404 36 LAT (DEG N) 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.5 30.1 30.7 31.2 31.6 32.0 32.5 33.0 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 38.0 36.9 35.9 34.9 33.9 31.8 29.4 27.0 24.8 22.9 21.2 19.7 18.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 11 10 9 8 7 7 10 16 25 30 28 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 85/ 13 CX,CY: 13/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 670 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -18. -20. -24. -27. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -8. -12. -16. -22. -27. -32. -36. -38. -38. -38. -38. -39. -39. -39. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 16. 17. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. -1. -4. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -20. -18. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -6. -10. -16. -17. -20. -24. -25. -30. -36. -42. -48. -51. -50. -51. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 28.9 38.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.80 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 67.2 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.23 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.98 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.3 30.0 to 128.0 0.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.6 to -2.7 0.65 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 366.4 814.0 to -65.0 0.51 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 58 54 50 44 43 40 36 35 30 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 56 52 48 42 41 38 34 33 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 52 48 42 41 38 34 33 28 22 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 46 40 39 36 32 31 26 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT