* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * THETA AL302020 11/10/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 50 49 48 44 42 42 39 38 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 48 50 49 48 44 42 42 39 38 32 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 48 49 48 46 41 37 35 34 36 38 38 36 33 30 29 29 Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 48 52 59 63 61 49 44 31 32 23 26 32 29 33 26 5 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 -4 -4 -6 0 -5 -6 -9 -6 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 5 11 SHEAR DIR 233 229 229 238 241 236 244 252 271 274 7 342 3 358 351 344 190 SST (C) 25.2 24.7 24.9 24.8 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.2 22.8 22.6 22.3 21.8 21.6 20.9 19.1 17.3 14.9 POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 104 103 102 99 97 92 90 89 88 85 84 82 79 76 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 94 91 92 91 89 87 85 82 80 79 78 75 75 74 73 71 69 200 MB T (C) -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.5 -57.3 -57.1 -56.8 -57.7 -58.4 -58.1 -57.8 -57.8 -58.1 -58.1 -58.8 -59.7 -59.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.1 0.3 -0.5 -0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 39 36 36 36 36 37 37 39 43 48 56 59 56 51 50 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 24 25 23 24 25 26 24 24 22 21 19 16 12 14 10 850 MB ENV VOR 98 86 69 67 56 55 58 62 43 32 -1 -19 -43 -74 -82 -40 -69 200 MB DIV 79 66 44 35 31 31 37 31 43 34 -28 -10 -24 -24 2 62 50 700-850 TADV -21 -19 -12 -6 -8 -7 -15 -13 1 2 0 16 9 21 24 0 -4 LAND (KM) 2298 2332 2226 2127 2028 1885 1726 1584 1424 1262 1134 1008 943 904 721 570 511 LAT (DEG N) 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.7 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.8 32.4 33.0 33.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 40.0 38.8 37.7 36.6 35.5 33.7 31.8 29.9 27.8 25.6 23.6 21.7 20.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 11 18 21 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 10 CX,CY: 10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 721 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -10. -13. -14. -16. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -19. -27. -33. -36. -39. -40. -42. -46. -48. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 19. 19. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -0. 1. 1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -12. -16. -21. -18. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 5. 3. -1. -3. -3. -6. -7. -13. -18. -25. -34. -42. -39. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 28.8 40.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.73 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 65.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.56 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.4 30.0 to 128.0 0.17 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.40 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 281.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.61 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 100.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL302020 THETA 11/10/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL302020 THETA 11/10/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 48 50 49 48 44 42 42 39 38 32 27 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 45 44 46 45 44 40 38 38 35 34 28 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 35 33 33 30 29 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 30 28 28 25 24 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT