* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 54 55 57 59 63 62 65 62 60 55 51 45 42 37 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 57 58 60 62 66 65 67 65 63 58 54 48 45 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 51 51 51 51 55 59 61 61 59 55 50 45 40 38 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 23 22 15 7 11 11 16 13 17 18 18 13 15 19 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -4 -7 0 -1 0 1 4 9 6 14 9 8 0 8 SHEAR DIR 259 250 245 262 299 314 340 301 296 266 271 273 301 272 284 253 270 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.8 28.4 28.5 28.2 27.6 27.3 27.2 27.0 26.7 25.7 24.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 144 135 126 132 139 140 136 128 124 123 120 117 107 95 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 134 129 120 111 116 120 120 115 109 105 103 101 98 91 82 74 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.6 -53.8 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 70 65 63 58 58 59 59 57 56 55 52 46 40 39 38 40 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 24 24 24 23 24 23 25 24 23 21 19 15 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 164 184 193 171 163 145 99 95 76 57 33 32 24 10 -42 -38 -46 200 MB DIV 99 110 99 35 -15 -17 -13 6 1 24 -3 -6 -35 -19 9 34 9 700-850 TADV 23 21 7 6 0 2 2 0 5 1 8 2 1 1 -2 7 21 LAND (KM) -40 23 86 106 101 138 161 204 259 267 212 164 126 94 53 21 9 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.8 23.6 24.0 24.3 24.2 24.2 24.4 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.4 26.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.5 79.8 80.6 81.4 82.9 83.9 84.5 84.6 84.5 84.2 83.9 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 3 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 34 32 30 26 31 33 62 91 50 27 15 11 10 7 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -10. -13. -18. -20. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 13. 12. 15. 12. 10. 5. 1. -5. -8. -13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 79.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.53 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.6 41.0 to 7.4 0.40 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 30.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.21 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.53 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.47 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.56 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.47 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.71 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 95.0 to 0.0 0.68 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 14.9% 9.7% 7.5% 6.7% 10.1% 11.5% 17.2% Logistic: 2.1% 7.1% 4.1% 1.0% 0.3% 1.6% 1.2% 1.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 7.4% 4.6% 2.8% 2.3% 3.9% 4.2% 6.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 56 57 58 60 62 66 65 67 65 63 58 54 48 45 40 18HR AGO 50 49 51 52 53 55 57 61 60 62 60 58 53 49 43 40 35 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 48 50 52 56 55 57 55 53 48 44 38 35 30 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 45 49 48 50 48 46 41 37 31 28 23 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT