* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 62 64 65 68 70 69 66 65 57 54 49 43 38 V (KT) LAND 55 50 44 50 51 52 53 56 59 58 54 53 46 42 31 29 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 57 45 49 50 51 53 57 60 61 59 54 51 47 33 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 20 19 22 9 12 14 15 17 16 18 19 17 25 34 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 1 0 -7 0 2 -2 6 3 12 4 6 7 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 259 247 233 260 311 326 324 290 295 282 275 280 291 266 263 265 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 27.2 27.6 28.0 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.1 26.6 23.0 22.5 25.0 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 149 146 137 125 129 133 130 127 124 122 118 90 88 104 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 134 130 121 110 112 113 109 107 105 104 102 80 78 90 101 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -52.7 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 62 59 61 59 56 57 54 53 49 41 42 42 43 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 28 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 25 26 25 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 142 166 185 188 171 163 120 85 66 48 42 29 20 15 -7 -47 -54 200 MB DIV 89 85 112 71 33 -25 -3 14 -1 15 6 12 -14 -22 9 87 110 700-850 TADV 20 20 15 6 3 1 5 -1 4 1 9 6 3 -2 8 9 51 LAND (KM) 83 -9 -8 36 100 123 204 244 272 267 226 182 95 7 -56 87 122 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.3 23.9 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.3 25.5 25.9 26.4 27.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.7 79.7 80.1 80.6 82.1 83.4 84.2 84.4 84.5 84.3 84.1 83.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 3 2 2 3 4 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 58 41 34 33 29 24 23 39 33 27 17 10 6 0 0 2 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -1. -6. -6. -7. -10. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 15. 14. 11. 10. 2. -1. -6. -12. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.9 79.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 30.7 41.0 to 7.4 0.31 1.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.27 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 33.3 to 3.1 0.06 0.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.84 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 30.0 to 128.0 0.50 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.60 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.0 -28.0 to 171.0 0.53 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.73 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 95.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 14.9% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 9.7% 10.7% 16.1% Logistic: 2.2% 6.0% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Consensus: 2.8% 7.0% 4.3% 0.2% 0.0% 3.4% 3.9% 5.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 44 50 51 52 53 56 59 58 54 53 46 42 31 29 25 18HR AGO 55 54 48 54 55 56 57 60 63 62 58 57 50 46 35 33 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 58 59 60 63 66 65 61 60 53 49 38 36 32 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 48 51 54 53 49 48 41 37 26 24 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT