* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 41 45 50 52 51 53 58 59 60 62 63 63 62 62 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 51 53 53 55 39 44 45 47 47 47 46 47 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 38 40 43 41 38 36 30 33 34 39 45 51 54 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 14 15 14 18 26 28 29 19 10 6 6 10 14 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 6 11 14 9 5 4 2 -2 -2 -2 2 -3 3 0 SHEAR DIR 155 238 230 248 244 249 253 261 272 253 291 355 8 298 306 319 358 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.6 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.1 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 150 152 154 155 156 154 155 150 145 144 135 134 134 134 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 139 140 142 145 145 146 141 139 130 126 126 116 114 114 114 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 80 78 77 72 67 62 60 57 54 55 56 55 52 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 17 20 21 20 21 24 23 20 20 21 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 145 114 114 126 129 111 129 154 149 153 153 123 99 57 44 7 -34 200 MB DIV 106 116 117 138 134 81 60 43 54 12 18 -16 1 1 17 -15 -5 700-850 TADV 2 4 2 7 5 9 10 14 20 7 4 0 1 6 -2 2 -3 LAND (KM) -32 19 70 101 123 235 228 126 0 -10 55 91 167 210 244 293 332 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.7 19.8 21.0 22.0 22.9 23.5 24.0 24.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.7 87.7 87.2 86.8 85.3 83.7 82.1 81.0 80.4 80.9 82.2 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 6 7 8 9 9 8 7 4 5 6 4 2 3 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 38 43 49 69 85 75 79 83 55 39 47 61 35 36 44 42 30 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 19. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. -4. -7. -8. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 9. 13. 12. 7. 6. 6. 3. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 15. 20. 22. 21. 23. 28. 29. 30. 32. 33. 33. 32. 32. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 87.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 3.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.50 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 56.8 0.0 to 147.0 0.39 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 33.3 to 3.1 0.40 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.2 30.0 to 128.0 0.83 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.6 to -2.7 0.61 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.75 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 37.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.88 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 23.1% 12.0% 8.1% 7.3% 10.1% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 4.7% 19.9% 6.9% 1.7% 0.5% 1.9% 2.9% 4.7% Bayesian: 2.7% 3.7% 1.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.7% 0.4% 0.2% Consensus: 4.6% 15.6% 6.6% 3.5% 2.7% 4.2% 4.9% 1.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 42 46 51 53 53 55 39 44 45 47 47 47 46 47 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 41 46 48 48 50 34 39 40 42 42 42 41 42 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 39 41 41 43 27 32 33 35 35 35 34 35 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 31 31 33 17 22 23 25 25 25 24 25 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT