* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 40 36 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 43 40 36 31 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 40 36 31 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 31 32 32 34 35 41 41 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 8 6 7 4 7 11 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 233 228 230 228 223 227 226 246 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.9 26.0 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.7 27.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 122 124 124 126 125 124 129 132 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 -54.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 49 47 43 41 38 35 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 16 15 14 12 9 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -22 -10 -7 -15 13 22 18 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 21 1 -16 -13 -11 -10 20 -10 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 15 9 5 0 0 -1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1293 1351 1399 1453 1507 1636 1767 1905 2037 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.5 16.7 15.9 15.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.6 123.4 124.1 124.7 125.3 126.4 127.3 128.3 129.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 1 2 1 0 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -21. -29. -34. -38. -41. -43. -43. -44. -46. -47. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -13. -16. -16. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -14. -15. -14. -12. -12. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -9. -14. -25. -40. -54. -64. -70. -74. -77. -78. -79. -78. -79. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.2 122.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.6 -30.0 to 145.0 0.15 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 49.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 316.2 742.0 to -74.0 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.0 34.4 to 2.3 0.95 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.6 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 69.5 56.6 to 0.0 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.0 to -2.0 0.23 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##