* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ODALYS EP202020 11/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 35 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 35 30 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 40 36 31 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 34 34 35 35 36 39 45 40 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 6 5 5 5 5 2 8 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 236 238 229 231 221 218 228 231 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 25.8 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.0 26.3 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 121 122 123 124 126 122 125 130 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.1 -52.9 -53.1 -53.6 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 54 50 49 44 38 36 34 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 15 14 14 13 9 8 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -5 -26 -22 -15 -4 -3 22 12 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 41 24 8 -10 -3 -14 1 10 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 13 13 6 3 1 -1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1248 1298 1350 1405 1461 1589 1727 1873 2012 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.3 18.5 18.5 18.4 17.9 17.2 16.3 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.9 122.7 123.5 124.3 125.0 126.2 127.3 128.3 129.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 11 CX,CY: -8/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -14. -22. -30. -36. -40. -44. -45. -46. -46. -49. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -10. -15. -18. -18. -18. -17. -15. -14. -13. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -53. -64. -70. -74. -77. -78. -79. -78. -80. -82. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 121.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.1 30.0 to 135.0 0.46 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -20.0 to 40.0 0.42 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.0 -30.0 to 145.0 0.24 999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 50.5 28.1 to 8.6 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 284.0 742.0 to -74.0 0.56 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 25.0 to 120.0 0.61 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 34.4 to 2.3 0.73 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 3.0 to 94.0 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.0 to -2.0 0.18 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202020 ODALYS 11/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##