* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 27 28 34 40 45 48 49 53 58 60 59 60 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 36 42 47 50 41 50 55 56 55 57 58 60 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 33 37 38 35 29 30 27 24 23 24 27 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 8 6 0 11 18 23 34 40 35 24 18 12 1 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 1 3 9 11 14 8 3 5 9 1 -1 0 6 9 SHEAR DIR 86 85 65 114 4 257 237 262 266 280 290 299 310 330 269 268 269 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.5 27.9 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.6 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 152 150 150 154 157 157 155 153 142 133 136 133 132 129 124 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 150 143 141 140 145 149 149 143 137 124 116 118 115 113 110 105 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 83 84 84 80 77 72 70 60 60 53 43 37 40 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 15 17 20 21 22 26 27 26 24 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 167 172 162 153 121 122 134 104 159 160 173 158 146 94 69 43 60 200 MB DIV 166 157 135 115 99 108 118 76 61 1 -10 -13 0 11 0 -7 -21 700-850 TADV 1 4 3 2 0 9 0 7 13 14 14 0 -3 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) -198 -153 -116 -65 -2 106 202 237 88 -8 96 86 152 235 298 300 260 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.4 14.7 15.3 15.8 17.1 18.2 19.7 21.4 23.0 24.3 25.1 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.6 87.2 87.4 87.7 87.2 85.7 83.8 82.2 81.2 81.1 82.0 83.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 8 10 11 10 8 5 6 6 5 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 38 39 42 63 76 84 85 60 38 26 25 23 31 19 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 33. 34. 34. 34. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -3. -9. -12. -13. -14. -12. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. 1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 6. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. 4. 10. 15. 18. 19. 23. 28. 30. 29. 30. 32. 34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 86.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.33 1.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 41.0 to 7.4 0.68 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 27.4 0.0 to 147.0 0.19 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 33.3 to 3.1 0.77 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.14 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.8 30.0 to 128.0 0.88 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.6 to -2.7 0.51 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.4 -28.0 to 171.0 0.82 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 25.2 814.0 to -65.0 0.90 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.4% 16.8% 10.5% 8.5% 5.8% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 15.9% 3.9% 2.6% 2.4% 6.5% 8.0% 7.2% Bayesian: 0.7% 7.2% 2.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Consensus: 1.9% 13.3% 5.5% 3.9% 2.9% 5.8% 2.7% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 36 42 47 50 41 50 55 56 55 57 58 60 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 36 42 47 50 41 50 55 56 55 57 58 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 34 40 45 48 39 48 53 54 53 55 56 58 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 29 35 40 43 34 43 48 49 48 50 51 53 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT