* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 41 38 37 38 42 43 44 44 44 43 46 48 49 48 48 50 V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 33 33 34 34 35 30 36 38 39 37 37 40 V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 31 29 31 33 35 34 32 26 26 22 21 21 23 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 5 8 9 13 12 19 28 37 44 29 21 15 16 12 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 6 2 0 4 7 6 4 -4 2 -1 1 0 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 69 90 95 89 171 221 227 234 242 254 255 296 321 325 326 308 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 28.6 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 161 159 153 154 153 150 157 158 153 150 143 134 136 133 132 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 154 147 146 142 141 150 151 142 134 124 116 118 115 113 109 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 82 80 84 79 77 72 69 58 53 45 42 38 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 18 16 14 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 144 162 162 142 119 113 129 107 153 145 165 148 124 75 51 3 200 MB DIV 128 153 156 135 101 86 91 111 67 74 35 -8 -22 -24 -31 -10 -8 700-850 TADV 1 -1 8 5 5 4 1 2 -1 -3 0 1 3 -11 -18 -8 -12 LAND (KM) -151 -203 -174 -122 -83 20 21 118 222 99 -22 111 108 166 244 316 365 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.8 21.5 23.0 24.2 25.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.5 86.2 86.9 87.7 88.4 88.0 86.5 84.6 82.8 81.8 81.6 82.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 8 7 5 7 11 12 10 7 5 5 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 12 35 38 40 48 80 86 80 80 52 28 25 24 28 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21. 19. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -14. -12. -7. -5. -5. -5. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -21. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -11. -13. -12. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -7. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 84.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 41.0 to 7.4 0.61 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.2 0.0 to 147.0 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 33.3 to 3.1 0.67 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.70 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 30.0 to 128.0 0.73 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.6 to -2.7 0.52 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.6 -28.0 to 171.0 0.82 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 45.8 814.0 to -65.0 0.87 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.9% 7.7% 6.5% 4.6% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.8% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 1.0% 2.6% 1.7% Bayesian: 0.5% 5.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 1.4% 15.2% 43.9% Consensus: 0.2% 6.8% 2.9% 2.3% 1.7% 4.0% 5.9% 15.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 29 33 33 34 34 35 30 36 38 39 37 37 40 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 38 42 42 43 43 44 39 45 47 48 46 46 49 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 45 45 46 46 47 42 48 50 51 49 49 52 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 42 42 43 43 44 39 45 47 48 46 46 49 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT