* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 123 120 114 105 99 97 89 82 76 73 76 81 85 89 90 V (KT) LAND 115 123 123 102 81 47 33 29 27 27 24 22 25 29 34 38 39 V (KT) LGEM 115 126 128 108 85 48 33 29 27 27 33 38 41 45 50 57 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 15 16 15 13 13 5 2 11 7 14 9 5 5 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -2 5 4 -1 2 1 2 3 6 8 1 SHEAR DIR 139 135 122 100 90 79 47 109 148 162 183 218 251 256 312 360 356 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 159 163 160 156 152 152 151 158 160 162 161 161 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 148 146 146 149 154 152 148 141 140 139 146 148 148 146 144 144 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 6 5 8 7 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 84 84 81 81 80 83 83 81 82 82 76 69 59 50 41 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 26 24 20 17 16 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 120 125 125 117 119 129 150 130 115 114 105 91 124 163 169 150 200 MB DIV 122 153 163 168 155 113 98 81 74 105 118 66 35 32 22 15 -5 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 4 3 0 -3 2 4 2 0 0 -2 -5 -3 3 3 LAND (KM) 129 75 22 -8 -23 -98 -183 -136 -91 -17 46 117 144 235 289 261 260 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.5 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.0 14.2 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.3 17.2 18.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.5 83.0 83.3 83.6 84.4 85.4 86.6 87.4 87.8 87.6 87.1 86.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 3 3 4 6 5 4 4 4 5 6 6 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 38 39 38 34 36 11 5 23 38 38 48 73 93 86 87 91 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -15. -21. -27. -31. -33. -35. -38. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -4. 1. 4. 8. 10. 12. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 3. 4. 1. -1. -5. -7. -5. -2. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 8. 5. -1. -10. -16. -18. -26. -33. -39. -42. -39. -34. -30. -26. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.7 82.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -45.0 to 30.0 1.00 15.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 41.0 to 7.4 0.56 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.91 6.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.16 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.03 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.6 to -2.7 0.42 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.91 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.84 2.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 47% is 9.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 46.7% 46.6% 37.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 66.4% 81.5% 62.9% 70.8% 60.0% 60.8% 48.1% 41.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 6.1% 3.0% 1.7% 3.6% 2.4% 0.1% 0.7% Consensus: 37.7% 44.7% 34.6% 24.2% 21.2% 21.1% 16.1% 13.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 35( 55) 0( 55) 0( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 89 82( 98) 0( 98) 0( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 123 123 102 81 47 33 29 27 27 24 22 25 29 34 38 39 18HR AGO 115 114 114 93 72 38 24 20 18 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 90 69 35 21 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 84 50 36 32 30 30 27 25 28 32 37 41 42 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 62 48 44 42 42 39 37 40 44 49 53 54 IN 6HR 115 123 114 108 105 89 75 71 69 69 66 64 67 71 76 80 81 IN 12HR 115 123 123 114 108 104 90 86 84 84 81 79 82 86 91 95 96