* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 82 84 85 83 76 68 47 31 26 22 17 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 61 49 58 60 60 58 39 31 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 63 50 57 61 68 69 45 32 31 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 9 5 3 11 15 29 68 123 117 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -8 -6 0 5 8 14 10 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 337 347 12 213 265 251 258 241 224 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.3 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.2 25.7 25.1 21.1 18.1 13.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 166 158 148 143 139 128 115 112 90 81 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 149 139 134 128 118 107 107 86 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.1 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -51.6 -49.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 67 64 60 58 53 54 59 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 37 30 22 22 17 27 93 141 153 123 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 34 7 17 39 62 84 161 93 73 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 -3 -7 0 20 42 112 149 -250 -243 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 -43 -13 114 240 393 44 -288 -245 88 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.6 21.3 22.3 23.2 25.6 28.9 32.9 36.7 40.2 43.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.6 88.7 89.6 90.5 91.1 89.8 85.9 79.4 71.8 64.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 13 12 15 22 29 34 34 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 39 35 21 19 10 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -8. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -5. -19. -36. -38. -41. -45. -47. -50. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 14. 15. 13. 6. -2. -23. -39. -44. -48. -53. -55. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 86.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -45.0 to 30.0 0.67 9.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 41.0 to 7.4 0.87 7.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 147.0 0.25 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 33.3 to 3.1 0.88 5.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 25.0 to 125.0 0.85 4.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.5 30.0 to 128.0 0.42 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.6 to -2.7 0.44 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 -28.0 to 171.0 0.28 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 272.0 814.0 to -65.0 0.62 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 95.0 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 4.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.0% 45.8% 36.1% 29.6% 26.0% 24.1% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 25.2% 54.1% 41.9% 32.1% 27.5% 28.5% 14.4% 0.0% Bayesian: 11.7% 51.6% 20.4% 15.4% 6.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 20.7% 50.5% 32.8% 25.7% 19.8% 19.0% 9.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 61 49 58 60 60 58 39 31 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 57 66 68 68 66 47 39 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 75 77 77 75 56 48 33 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 62 62 60 41 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT